New US tariff list on Canadian goods: what cross-border fleets need to know
The list of Canadian goods hit by an extra 50% US tariff changed again on Friday, Oct. 30. Some products came off the list and many more went on. The changes don't touch trucking rules or what drivers need at the border, but they can change what your customers ship, how much of it, and where. Here is what changed and what fleets running Canada-US lanes should do about it.
What changed on October 30
According to The Trucker, a presidential proclamation published in the Federal Register on Oct. 30 changed which Canadian products carry the additional 50% tariff. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) says the update removes 22 product classifications from the extra duty and adds 100 others.
The new rates apply to affected Canadian goods imported into the US from 12:01 a.m. Eastern on Oct. 30, including goods released from customs warehouses on or after that date.
Coming off the list: certain types of plywood, plastic packaging materials, paperboard, cartons, bags and refrigeration equipment, plus specified industrial machinery used for packaging, processing and agricultural production.
Going on the list: certain lubricating preparations, wood products, flooring materials, paper products, paints and other manufactured goods.
These tariffs were first imposed in July 2026, took effect in August and were modified in September. The extra duty is applied under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Per a White House fact sheet cited by The Trucker, it applies whether or not a product qualifies under USMCA, and it comes on top of any Section 232 duties. CBP has issued updated filing instructions and revised tariff classifications for importers and customs brokers.
What it means for trucking
The products involved, such as building materials, packaging, industrial equipment, lubricants, paper and flooring, are the kind of freight that moves by truck every day. The Trucker notes that carriers serving construction, manufacturing, agricultural and industrial customers are the most likely to feel it.
- Some lanes could pick up. Dropping the extra tariff on certain plywood and packaging products could lower import costs and support demand from US buyers.
- Others could slow. Adding the duty to other building materials, flooring and manufactured goods could raise costs for importers and change what they buy and ship.
- Nobody knows the size yet. The proclamation gives no estimate of the effect on freight volumes, truck traffic or rates. It will depend on the value of the goods, customer demand and how businesses react.
The direct cost falls on importers, not carriers. But when import demand shifts, freight volumes, equipment use and the mix of loads crossing the border can shift with it.
Capacity is already tight into 2027
The tariff changes land in a market that was already squeezed. CDLWire, citing FreightWaves, reports that cross-border capacity is expected to stay constrained into 2027 even with softer freight demand.
- The index is still above 50. TRAFFIX's October North American Cross-Border Index read 57 for Canada, down one point from September. Readings above 50 mean tighter conditions: higher costs, limited trucks and regulatory hurdles.
- Few new trucks are entering. Higher interest rates and tighter lending are keeping new carriers out. TRAFFIX's Alex Fuller said financing can cost 8% to 9%.
- Return loads are the problem. Demand for Canadian exports is fairly strong, but weaker southbound-to-northbound freight makes backhauls hard to find. TRAFFIX's Toronto-based Lance Halliday called Florida especially hard, with drivers sometimes waiting days for a return load or running hundreds of miles empty.
- Rates are up on some corridors. Halliday said rates on some corridors climbed 25% to 35% over roughly the past month to month and a half, without naming lanes or giving a market average. He doesn't expect significant relief in the next three to six months.
- Contract freight is being handed back. Carriers are returning contract loads because rates set months ago no longer cover costs, pushing more freight onto the spot market.
Checklist for cross-border fleets
- Ask your top shippers whether any of their products moved on or off the 50% list, and how that changes their volumes.
- Watch building, packaging and paper lanes closely, since those are the categories named in the change.
- Check your contract rates against today's costs before renewals, given the rate moves and contract freight being handed back.
- Plan backhauls before dispatch. Line up northbound loads early, especially on long southern runs.
- Track empty miles and wait time per lane with your GPS data so you know which runs actually pay.
- Keep customs paperwork current. Make sure your customers' brokers are using CBP's updated instructions so loads aren't held up.
- Re-check the list regularly. It was changed in September and again in October, so it may change again.
The bottom line
The Oct. 30 change shuffles which Canadian goods pay the extra 50% duty rather than ending it. With cross-border capacity expected to stay tight into 2027, fleets that know their lanes, their empty miles and their real cost per trip will be in the best position to adjust as freight shifts.
Sources: The Trucker, "Changes to Canadian tariffs could shift cross-border freight demand," Oct 2026; CDLWire, "Cross-border capacity to stay tight into 2027 as driver shortages and visa pullbacks bite," Oct 13, 2026.
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